Why Canada's Election Is Actually Interesting This Time

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Canada's election campaign kicked off this week, set to be the nation's longest and perhaps costliest since 1872. While Canadian politics have long held the stigma of being boring, this latest election may be an exception. 

The outcome of the Oct. 19 vote -- which promises to be close -- could fundamentally change the political nature of Canada, either steering the country further towards conservatism or reverting to the left-leaning values of its past. Prime Minister Stephen Harper of the Conservative party is attempting to become the country's first leader in more than a hundred years to secure a fourth term. If he succeeds, polarizing right-wing policies on Canada's security, energy and economy will be cemented. If not, the country's foreign and domestic policy could see a sizable shift.

Here's what to know about Canada's election.

The Parties

Canadians don't vote specifically for a national leader. Instead, each citizen votes for one party representative in their local district; there are 338 districts, called "ridings." The leader of the party with the most ridings is usually appointed prime minister. How the parties' leaders are viewed weighs heavily on the vote and scrutiny over Harper's performance is a major issue in the campaign. 

Harper's center-right Conservative Party of Canada was first elected in 2006 as a minority government and achieved a majority in the last national election in 2011. Under Harper's stewardship, the party has focused on trying to develop the country into an energy superpower through expanding use of Canada's controversial oil sands and backing development of multi-billion dollar oil pipelines.

Critics of the government argue the policy has turned Canada into a kind of petrostate. Due to this resource reliance, global drops in oil prices have also contributed to the nation's once-strong economy hovering around recession in 2015 and its dollar hitting an 11-year-low. 

The Conservatives' main opposition is Tom Mulcair's left-wing New Democrat Party, which has risen in the polls in recent months and now holds a slight lead. The NDP, which has never run a government before, is hoping to capitalize on discontent with Harper. Sixty percent of Canadians described themselves as "angry" or "discouraged" with the prime minister in a poll released July 17 by research firm EKOS.

The third major party is the center-left Liberal Party of Canada, which finds itself in third place in polls and parliament seats after a long reign of political dominance in the 20th century. The Liberals are helmed by 43-year-old Justin Trudeau, who is the son of one of the nation's most famous prime ministers, Pierre Trudeau.

The Liberals led in the polls at one point last year, but began a slow decline in 2015 amid attack ads that framed Trudeau as an inexperienced pretty boy with the slogan "Just Not Ready." In one notable ad, actors mocked the leader's humanitarian-focused foreign policy as "wanting to send winter jackets to Syria," with one saying "like that will stop ISIS?"

The Campaign

While a 78-day campaign may seem short compared to the million-furlong horse race that is the road to the American presidency, the lead-up to Canada's election is the longest in more a century.

Elections in Canada must take place no less than every five years but can happen sooner, at a date the prime minister chooses. Analysts allege that Harper called the start of the election campaign so far before the vote because the ruling Conservative party has deep pockets and will try to outspend its adversaries over the course of the race. 

The first debate featuring the three leaders is set for Thursday, as latest polling averages put the NDP at 33.2 percent, Conservatives at 30.9 percent and Liberals at 25.9 percent. The Bloc Quebecois and Green Party of Canada round out the field.

The Issues

If the Conservatives win an outright majority it will be a mandate to continue policies pursued since the party took power in 2006. During that time Canada's role in the world has fundamentally shifted, from that of a peacekeeping nation focused on humanitarian aid abroad to one that aims for "economic diplomacy" to foster benefits for Canada's private sector. 

An end to Conservative power could mean changes for Canada's relationship with Israel, as the Harper administration has been one of the world's most ardent supporters of Netanyahu's government. The NDP has also declared it would completely withdraw military forces from the fight against Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria. The party also opposes the long-attempted Keystone XL oil pipeline.

Also on the table is Canada's controversial Bill C-51, which critics have compared to the Patriot Act. The law passed in January after a 2014 terror attack on the parliament building but quickly drew criticism because of the greatly increased surveillance and detention powers it gives law enforcement. A poll in March found that a majority of Canadians oppose the legislation.

Canada's involvement in the Trans-Pacific Partnership is also potentially at stake, with NDP leader Mulcair backing some protectionist policies that are contrary to the demands of other negotiating countries. 

The Outcome

At current projections, it looks unlikely that any one party can attain the necessary number of seats in parliament to win a majority government. Much can change over the course of the campaign, but if that ends up being the case, the Liberals and the NDP could hold a no-confidence vote to force the Conservatives from power.

The two left-wing parties could also potentially join to form a coalition government in which they would share power.

In less than two months, with the race ahead looking to be close and contentious, Canadians will decide which direction they want the country to go. 

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